FIRST RELEASE

CROATIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS
10000 ZAGREB, ILICA 3, PHONE: +385 1 4806-111, P.O.B. 80, CROATIA

ISSN 1334-0565

 

YEAR: XLVI.

ZAGREB, 30 MARCH, 2009

NUMBER: 2.1.10/1.

 

 

OBLIGED TO NOTIFY DATA SOURCE

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDERS AND TURNOVER INDEX IN INDUSTRY, JANUARY 2009,

FIRST RESULTS

 

The total industrial turnover in January 2009 was by 13.6% lower than in January 2008. As compared to the average monthly turnover in 2008 in January 2009 it decreased by 27.8%.

 

According to the MIGs 2009. aggregates, in January 2009, as compared to January 2008, the total turnover of Intermediate goods was by 15.8% lower, of Energy by 22.7%, of Capital goods by 39.6% and of Durable consumer goods by 23.8%, while that of Non-durable consumer goods was higher by 8.3%.

 

The total industrial turnover in January 2009 on domestic market was by 6.2% lower than in January 2008. As compared to the average monthly turnover in 2008 in January 2009 it was lower by 22.7%. The total turnover in industry in January 2009 on non-domestic market decreased by 29.9% as compared to January 2008. As compared to the average monthly turnover in 2008 in January 2009 it decreased by 36.6%.

 

The total received new orders in industry in January 2009 increased by 51.3% as compared to January 2008. As compared to the average received monthly orders in 2008, the total received new orders in January 2009 increased by 44.3%.

 

According to the the MIGs 2009. aggregates, in January 2009, as compared to January 2008, the total received new orders for Intermediate goods increased by 12.7% and Capital goods by 148.9%, while Durable consumer goods decreased by 40.7% and Non-durable consumer goods by 56.3%.

 

The total received new orders in industry in January 2009 on domestic market increased by 6.4% as compared to January 2008. As compared to the average received monthly orders in 2008, the total received new orders in January 2009 increased by 5.3%.

 

The total received new orders in industry in January 2009 on non-domestic market increased by 100.4% as compared to January 2008. As compared to the average monthly orders in 2008, the total received new orders in January 2009 increased by 91.2%.

 

 

1.   INDUSTRIAL TURNOVER INDEX, TOTAL AND  ACCORDING TO MIGs 2009., JANUARY 2009

 

Structure

I. 2009.
Æ 2008.

I. 2009.
I. 2008.

 

 

 

 

Total industry

100,00

72,2

86,4

 

 

 

 

According to Main Industrial Groupings MIGs 2009.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AI  Intermediate goods

32,57

67,8

84,2

AE Energy

15,74

76,8

77,3

B   Capital goods

17,39

53,0

60,4

CD     Consumer durables

3,03

67,5

76,2

CN     Consumer non-durables

31,27

85,5

108,3

 

 

 

 

According to markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Domestic industrial turnover

62,87

77,3

93,8

Non-domestic industrial turnover

37,13

63,4

70,1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.   INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDERS INDEX, TOTAL AND ACCORDING TO MIGs 2009., JANUARY 2009

 

Structure

I. 2009.
Æ 2008.

I. 2009.
I. 2008.

 

 

 

 

Total industry

100,00

144,3

151,3

 

 

 

 

According to Main Industrial Groupings MIGs 2009.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AI  Intermediate goods

44,46

106,8

112,7

BB Capital goods

37,33

237,9

248,9

CD     Consumer durables

1,86

59,3

59,3

CN     Consumer non-durables

16,35

42,2

43,7

 

 

 

 

According to markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Domestic new orders

46,57

105,3

106,4

Non-domestic new orders

53,43

191,2

200,4

 


 

METHODOLOGICAL NOTES

 

In this first release Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) is publishing for the first time two new short-term business indicators – industrial turnover index as indication of market sales of goods and services and the industrial new order index as indication of future production within industry – which follows up the industrial production volume index as indication of the output and industrial activity, and together they provide very important dynamic information on business cycle movements.

 

Additionally, both the production and the turnover index can be used to show the monthly evolution of the goods and services market produced within industry while the new order index should help to identify turning points in the business cycle prior to the changes of the production and turnover indices.

 

Finally both new short-term indicators are presented not only as aggregates for total industry but for domestic and non-domestic markets as well, which makes up six new indicators according to STS legislation of the European Community (EU)2).

 

Turnover and new orders indices on domestic market serve for monthly measuring of movements in turnover/new orders realised/received by local units on the territory of the Republic of Croatia, while on the other hand, turnover and new orders indices on non-domestic market serve for measuring monthly movements in turnover/new orders realised/received by industrial enterprises on the non-domestic market, i.e. outside the territory of the Republic of Croatia.

 

Legal and methodological framework

 

The Monthly Survey on Industrial Turnover and New orders (IND-2/KPS/M) in 2009 is carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics together with county statistical offices on the basis of the Official Statistics Act (NN, No. 103/03).

 

Concepts and definitions used in this survey IND-2/KPS/M are are harmonised with the EU Methodology of Short-Term Business Statistics (Theme 4, ISSN 1725-0099; European Communities, 2006) as well as with the Commission Regulation (EC) No. 1503/2006 on definitions of variables, list of variables and frequency of data compilation. Special national Statistical Standards for the Monthly Survey on Industrial Turnover and New orders (IND-2/KPS/M) will be published in Narodnim novinama next year.

 

Scope and coverage

 

The IND-2/KPS/M Survey covers enterprises and parts thereof employing 20 or more persons employed and performing one or several industrial activities by definitions of activity coverage of the NKD 2007. (NN, No. 58/07. and 72/07.) for each indicator separately due to the differences in coverage according to legislation of EU.

 

Industrial turnover index covers only two sections of the NKD 2007. B Mining and quarrying and C Manufacturing, that is, their divisions 05 – 33.

 

Industrial new order index covers only those activities of NKD 2007. which are predominantly working  on orders thus include one sections of the NKD 2007. C Manufacturing but only their divisions 13, 14, 17, 20, 21 and 24 – 30.

 

Reference period

 

The reference period for data collection is a calendar month. As a rule, completed IND-2/KPS/M forms must be returned by mail to the Central Bureau of Statistics, as a rule 25 days after the end of the reference period.

 

Definitions and calculation method

 

Industrial turnover and new order index indices are chain indices calculated according to activities by value data of the turnover (sales)/new order received on the level of main activity of industrial local units defend by CBS.

 

Indices are calculated by aggregation of turnover value data (sales), value of new orders received respectively, in reporting month.

 

Definitions for industrial turnover index

 

The value of total turnover that is, income from sales is the invoiced value of reporting local units for the goods and services sold during the reference month. It corresponds to the market value of goods and services sold and delivered to third parties on domestic and non-domestic market in the reporting month. The value of income from sales (turnover) includes all transport and packing costs as well as taxes on invoiced goods and services of the reporting units except the value added tax (VAT).  Excluded are all reductions in prices, rebates and discounts as well as the value of returned packed goods, except cash price reductions. Price reductions, rebates and bonuses granted to customers later (e.g., at the end of the year) are also excluded.

 

The value of turnover on domestic and non-domestic market

 

The income from sales (turnover) of goods and services to third parties residing in the same country, that is, to residents of the Republic of Croatia, is considered sale on domestic market, while sales on non-domestic market is considered as sales to non-residents of the Republic of Croatia according to the criterion of the first destination of products or services and change of owner (irrespective of whether the goods or services for which the invoice was issued actually crossed the border or not).

 


Definitions for industrial new order index

 

The total value of an new orders received is the value as provided in a contract/agreement between a industrial local units/producer and ordered/third party on domestic or non-domestic market that are considered new, that is, received in a reference month for a future production of industrial products and services (for own account or for third party/subcontracting).

The value of contracted/agreed new orders does not include the value added tax (VAT). In the case when a certain order has been produced during the reference month and there is the invoice issued for it, it is not recorded here but in item Value of income from sales (turnover). New orders received and cancelled in the same reference month have not be excluded from new orders received data in compliance with STS legislations of EU.

 

The value of new orders on domestic and non-domestic market

 

The value of new orders received for production of goods and services from third parties residing in the same country, that is, to residents of the Republic of Croatia, is considered orders on domestic market, while new orders received on non-domestic market is considered as orders from non-residents of the Republic of Croatia. As for new orders received in the reference month, the criterion for determining the market refers to the residence of an orderer of industrial goods or services and not to the residence of a producer.

 

Calculation method

 

Indices of industrial turnover and new orders for the different levels of NKD 2007. are calculated for indices on group levels and higher by weighting with the share in value of sales (turnover) for defined industrial activities according to NKD 2007. in respect with each indicator.

 

Indices for MIGs 2009. aggregates are calculated in the same way as well as those with split into domestic and non-domestic market according depending on coverage of activities that differs for each indicator.

 

The structure of industrial activities (division structure) in 2008 has for both indicators – industrial turnover index and new orders – has been calculated for 2008 on the basis of the value of turnover (sales) by kind-of-activity (pure activity) principle in the Republic of Croatia in 2008. Domestic market index and non-domestic market index were calculated on the basis of annual statistical results of the Structural Business Survey on Industry (coverage of 94.5%) of the Central Bureau of Statistics and annual results taken over from administrative data obtained of Fina – the Annual Accounts of Industrial Enterprises in 2007 (coverage of 5.5%). The calculating structure from the same survey is used for the calculation of domestic market index and non-domestic market index. The division structure will be updated at the beginning of every year for the calculation of indices of a current year.

 

Special notes to users

 

In this first release, all indices are presented in the original (unadjusted) form. They were calculated on the basis of data collected through the Monthly Survey on Industrial Turnover and New Orders (IND-2/KPS/M form) in 2009. Due to the shortness of the series that started in January 2005 when the data collection began, seasonally and working-day adjusted indices and the trend are presently not available and their presentation is expected at the beginning of the next year.

 

 

Backcasted time series of monthly turnover and new orders indices originally collected according to NKD 2002. have been backcasted to NKD 2007. using micro method (double encoding of reporting units) at the level of sections and divisions as well as MIGs 2009. aggregates. They are available for the period from January 2005 to December 2008 and will be published in the following First Release No. 2.1.10/2. entitled Industrial new orders and turnover index in industry in 2009, first results, which will be issued  on 16 April 2009 in paper form as well as in electronic form at the CBS web site. Backcasted time series of industrial monthly turnover and new orders indices at the level of NKD 2007. sections, as well as the original monthly series for 2009 have been analysed and their issue is due at the beginning of the next year. All presently available backcasted time series can be obtained in electronic form on the basis of users’ personal request to the Statistical Information and Documentation, Archive and Publications Division of the CBS.

 

 

2)    COMMISSION REGULATION (EC) No. 656/2007 of 14 June 2007 on implementing Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics as regards     the definitions of Main Industrial Groupings (MIGs).

 

 

 

Abbreviations

 

CBS               Central Bureau of Statistics

e.g.                for example (from Latin: exempli gratia)

EU                  European Union

Fina               Financial Agency

MIGs 2009.    Main Industrial Groupings, 2009 version

n.e.c.             not elsewhere classified

NKD 2007.     National Classification of Activities, 2007 version

NN                 Narodne novine, official gazette of the Republic of Croatia

 

 

This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of Central Bureau of Statistics and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.