INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDERS AND TURNOVER INDEX IN INDUSTRY, FEBRUARY 2009, FIRST RESULTS

*FIRST RELEASE*		CROATIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS 10000 ZAGREB, ILICA 3, PHONE: +385 1 4806-111, P.O.B. 80, CROATIA ISSN 1334-0565

YEAR: XLVI.	ZAGREB, 16 APRIL, 2009		NUMBER: 2.1.10/2.

				OBLIGED TO NOTIFY DATA SOURCE

INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDERS AND TURNOVER INDEX IN INDUSTRY, FEBRUARY 2009,

FIRST RESULTS

The total industrial turnover in February 2009 was by 9.3% higher than in February 2008. As compared to the average monthly turnover in 2008 in February 2009 it decreased by 1.3%.

According to the MIGs 2009. aggregates, in February 2009, as compared to February 2008, the total turnover of Intermediate goods was by 4.9% lower, of Energy by 21.9% lower and of Durable consumer goods by 40.4% lower, while that of Capital goods was by 99.1% higher and that of Non-durable consumer goods by 6.8% higher.

The total industrial turnover in February 2009 on domestic market was by 6.3% higher than in February 2008. As compared to the average monthly turnover in 2008 in February 2009 it was lower by 8.0%. The total turnover in industry in February 2009 on non-domestic market increased by 9.8% as compared to February 2008. As compared to the average monthly turnover in 2008 in February 2009 it increased by 7.4%.

The total received new orders in industry in February 2009 increased by 1.0% as compared to February 2008. As compared to the average received monthly orders in 2008, the total received new orders in February 2009 decreased by 0.4%.

According to the the MIGs 2009. aggregates, in February 2009, as compared to February 2008, the total received new orders for Intermediate goods decreased by 9.2%, for Durable consumer goods decreased by 56.0% and for Non-durable consumer goods by 56.9%, while for Capital goods increased by 41.0%.

The total received new orders in industry in February 2009 on domestic market increased by 18.1% as compared to February 2008. As compared to the average received monthly orders in 2008, the total received new orders in February 2009 increased by 10.5%.

The total received new orders in industry in February 2009 on non-domestic market increased by 2.8% as compared to February 2008. As compared to the average monthly orders in 2008, the total received new orders in February 2009 decreased by 1.3%.

1. INDUSTRIAL TURNOVER INDEX, TOTAL AND ACCORDING TO MIGs 2009., FEBRUARY 2009

	Structure	II. 2009. Æ 2008.	II. 2009. II. 2008.

Total industry	100,00	98,7	109,3

According to Main Industrial Groupings − MIGs 2009.

AI Intermediate goods	32,57	88,2	95,1
AE Energy	15,74	67,0	78,1
B Capital goods	17,39	166,1	199,1
CD Consumer durables	3,03	70,1	59,6
CN Consumer non-durables	31,27	91,1	106,8

According to markets

Domestic industrial turnover	62,87	92,0	106,3
Non-domestic industrial turnover	37,13	107,4	109,8

2. INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDERS INDEX, TOTAL AND ACCORDING TO MIGs 2009., FEBRUARY 2009

	Structure	II. 2009. Æ 2008.	II. 2009. II. 2008.

Manufacturing working on orders	100,00	99,6	101,0

According to Main Industrial Groupings − MIGs 2009.

AI Intermediate goods	44,46	91,2	90,8
BB Capital goods	37,33	138,3	141,0
CD Consumer durables	1,86	51,2	44,0
CN Consumer non-durables	16,35	40,0	43,1

According to markets

Domestic new orders	46,57	110,5	118,1
Non-domestic new orders	53,43	98,7	102,8

BACKCASTED TIME SERIES OF INDUSTRIAL TURNOVER CHAIN INDICES, 2005 – 2008

3. BACKCASTED INDUSTRIAL TURNOVER CHAIN INDICES, TOTAL AND MIGs 2009.¹⁾ ACCORDING TO NKD 2007.

	Total industry	Main Industrial Groupings – MIGs 2009.					NKD 2007. industrial sections
	Total industry	AI	AE¹⁾	BB	CD	CN	B	C

	2005.
I.	76,0	66,4	92,3	77,3	80,4	72,4	92,8	75,2
II.	82,2	75,8	64,5	76,3	86,9	80,2	68,4	82,8
III.	95,3	90,2	124,8	77,9	100,1	94,1	95,5	95,3
IV.	100,9	133,7	79,7	94,5	104,0	89,2	99,9	100,9
V.	101,6	98,9	77,7	76,7	111,4	103,0	96,4	101,8
VI.	105,5	98,9	69,6	99,5	111,1	111,6	93,8	106,0
VII.	102,7	111,5	89,4	98,9	107,5	107,2	95,2	103,1
VIII.	97,1	94,4	100,3	100,8	84,3	111,3	96,5	97,2
IX.	114,5	106,7	126,4	132,6	106,9	102,2	111,3	114,6
X.	108,7	96,5	136,9	121,1	94,2	110,4	117,5	108,3
XI.	100,9	111,1	118,6	93,3	108,8	107,1	117,3	100,1
XII.	114,7	116,0	119,8	151,1	105,0	111,3	115,4	114,6

	2006.
I.	90,2	100,1	72,4	75,8	93,8	83,3	104,0	89,6
II.	102,1	107,3	95,7	92,4	100,0	89,1	111,4	101,6
III.	132,4	135,2	124,7	117,3	119,4	111,0	113,1	133,3
IV.	114,6	128,1	99,8	94,4	114,8	99,8	101,6	115,2
V.	130,5	143,8	90,4	122,2	126,8	116,3	98,6	132,0
VI.	121,5	152,1	74,9	121,0	116,7	116,5	94,2	122,8
VII.	123,3	134,8	110,4	115,7	115,3	119,2	104,0	124,2
VIII.	120,3	129,2	123,6	116,4	105,5	119,0	91,7	121,7
IX.	126,8	143,5	125,4	144,3	118,1	111,5	115,6	127,3
X.	126,1	150,6	113,6	112,1	125,4	111,9	131,7	125,8
XI.	128,9	138,5	92,4	129,6	126,3	109,7	140,1	128,4
XII.	127,6	144,3	97,3	139,6	117,2	116,5	129,4	127,6

	2007.
I.	94,8	90,5	83,9	95,1	101,1	87,8	110,7	94,1
II.	101,7	100,2	79,3	93,3	101,5	85,2	91,8	102,1
III.	118,7	118,5	98,0	117,7	157,9	101,4	114,4	118,9
IV.	117,4	116,4	98,9	110,8	143,6	104,2	115,9	117,5
V.	121,1	122,1	117,4	118,9	116,9	110,2	136,2	120,5
VI.	115,7	111,6	117,4	112,9	120,9	112,0	132,6	114,9
VII.	128,8	118,1	119,2	148,6	174,2	120,1	128,2	128,8
VIII.	108,6	108,7	121,0	95,1	105,6	116,9	130,0	107,7
IX.	120,6	112,7	107,7	115,7	204,6	104,0	123,6	120,5
X.	130,7	123,9	131,7	133,4	214,2	108,6	143,2	130,2
XI.	117,8	115,1	132,0	102,0	138,6	111,1	151,9	116,2
XII.	120,9	110,1	135,0	125,8	186,1	119,2	160,4	119,1

1) GIG 2009. aggregates AE exlude division 35 of the NKD 2007. for turnover calculation (see Notes on Metodology).

3. BACKCASTED INDUSTRIAL TURNOVER CHAIN INDICES, TOTAL AND MIGs 2009.¹⁾ ACCORDING TO NKD 2007.

(continued)

	Total industry	Main Industrial Groupings – MIGs 2009.					NKD 2007. industrial sections
	Total industry	AI	AE¹⁾	BB	CD	CN	B	C

	2008.
I.	89,2	85,9	105,5	98,5	94,8	82,7	106,7	88,4
II.	96,4	98,9	91,2	93,5	125,9	89,3	113,1	95,7
III.	101,4	106,0	92,4	91,9	111,0	102,1	106,3	101,1
IV.	109,2	117,6	94,9	121,3	126,2	99,9	101,0	109,6
V.	109,0	112,3	122,3	101,3	122,6	105,3	112,8	108,8
VI.	111,8	114,4	121,0	131,0	128,6	110,6	111,2	111,9
VII.	122,8	126,9	142,0	124,7	131,7	118,5	123,9	122,8
VIII.	101,9	102,2	114,4	82,7	79,8	113,1	105,7	101,8
IX.	113,7	116,9	116,4	126,8	97,2	109,0	122,5	113,3
X.	109,8	114,9	101,9	115,4	98,1	104,6	137,9	108,5
XI.	107,1	97,9	98,6	130,1	90,5	104,1	133,2	105,9
XII.	108,1	85,9	74,8	128,1	77,5	117,8	130,8	107,0

BACKCASTED TIME SERIES OF INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDER CHAIN INDICES, 2005 – 2008

4. BACKCASTED INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDER CHAIN INDICES, TOTAL AND MIGs 2009.²⁾ ACCORDING TO NKD 2007.

	C - Manufacturing working on orders	Main Industrial Groupings – MIGs 2009.
	C - Manufacturing working on orders	AI	BB	CD	CN

	2005.
I.	80,0	94,9	45,6	52,2	106,4
II.	122,1	104,3	165,1	95,9	90,5
III.	94,8	108,7	68,7	109,6	107,6
IV.	108,2	110,3	116,4	83,3	91,6
V.	85,9	90,5	69,8	83,8	102,7
VI.	123,4	98,9	160,1	88,2	116,4
VII.	104,8	92,7	130,0	123,0	87,9
VIII.	77,4	93,7	51,9	80,5	84,7
IX.	103,0	88,6	134,4	130,0	80,4
X.	85,3	102,0	52,3	117,2	102,8
XI.	125,7	103,4	147,2	138,8	136,6
XII.	89,3	112,0	58,3	97,7	92,2

	2006.
I.	91,8	91,4	94,5	77,2	88,7
II.	106,0	145,2	58,0	116,1	101,7
III.	141,1	153,4	141,7	107,9	116,0
IV.	105,2	128,1	80,5	101,7	97,5
V.	98,4	116,9	79,8	100,8	89,7
VI.	130,7	108,4	180,3	98,3	98,0
VII.	93,4	109,2	73,9	108,2	91,2
VIII.	97,9	129,9	62,5	65,5	90,1
IX.	164,8	137,8	225,3	152,3	123,0
X.	183,3	139,6	289,5	145,6	102,8
XI.	115,5	134,1	95,5	139,4	107,7
XII.	106,3	72,0	154,3	134,4	98,3

2) Reducted set of GIG 2009. aggregates for calculation of industrial new orders (see Notes on Methodology)

4. BACKCASTED INDUSTRIAL NEW ORDER CHAIN INDICES, TOTAL AND MIGs 2009.²⁾ ACCORDING TO NKD 2007.

(continued)

	C - Manufacturing working on orders	Main Industrial Groupings – MIGs 2009.
	C - Manufacturing working on orders	AI	BB	CD	CN

	2007.
I.	115,2	102,9	138,6	131,7	96,0
II.	99,3	114,0	68,4	129,8	123,2
III.	203,9	134,1	332,7	143,9	119,0
IV.	120,7	117,2	133,3	99,2	105,6
V.	148,1	139,0	180,7	134,7	104,8
VI.	161,2	111,6	247,1	147,4	109,6
VII.	101,8	132,2	68,3	129,0	91,9
VIII.	136,6	133,1	157,4	115,5	104,5
IX.	103,7	113,7	77,0	151,9	128,8
X.	146,7	122,4	185,9	143,4	126,8
XI.	101,9	111,6	76,8	112,6	128,6
XII.	114,2	95,2	148,1	102,3	93,5

	2008.
I.	103,9	106,4	110,9	90,2	84,5
II.	104,7	112,9	104,3	106,7	84,7
III.	100,2	113,3	93,9	81,3	82,5
IV.	107,3	111,9	101,5	105,7	107,5
V.	105,2	118,4	97,0	99,4	89,2
VI.	121,9	138,7	115,1	106,6	94,8
VII.	112,7	128,5	108,3	111,6	82,0
VIII.	108,4	129,9	102,2	54,1	72,6
IX.	118,2	116,3	124,8	115,6	109,5
X.	113,9	108,2	110,6	101,5	136,6
XI.	91,4	88,7	101,7	74,2	78,6
XII.	85,7	75,2	105,7	52,7	74,2

NOTES ON METHODOLOGY

In this first release Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) is publishing for the first time two new short-term business indicators – the industrial turnover index as the indication of market sales of goods and services and the industrial new order index as the indication of future production within industry. They follow up the industrial production volume index as the indication of the output and industrial activity, and together they provide very important dynamic information on the business cycle movements.

Additionally, both the production and the turnover index can be used to show the monthly evolution of the goods and services market produced within industry, while the new order index should help to identify turning points in the business cycle prior to the changes of the production and turnover indices.

Finally both new short-term indicators are presented not only as aggregates for total industry but for domestic and non-domestic markets as well, which makes up six new indicators according to STS legislation of the European Community (EU)¹⁾.

Turnover and new orders indices on domestic market serve for monthly measuring of movements in turnover/new orders realised/received by local units on the territory of the Republic of Croatia, while on the other hand, turnover and new orders indices on non-domestic market serve for measuring monthly movements in turnover/new orders realised/received by industrial enterprises on the non-domestic market, i.e. outside the territory of the Republic of Croatia.

Legal and methodological framework

The Monthly Survey on Industrial Turnover and New orders (IND-2/KPS/M) in 2009 is carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics together with county statistical offices on the basis of the Official Statistics Act (NN, No. 103/03).

Concepts and definitions used in this survey IND-2/KPS/M are harmonised with the EU Methodology of Short-Term Business Statistics (Theme 4, ISSN 1725-0099; European Communities, 2006) as well as with the Commission Regulation (EC) No. 1503/2006 on definitions of variables, list of variables and frequency of data compilation. Special national Statistical Standards for the Monthly Survey on Industrial Turnover and New orders (IND-2/KPS/M) will be published in Narodne novine next year.

Scope and coverage

The IND-2/KPS/M Survey covers enterprises and parts thereof employing 20 or more persons employed and performing one or several industrial activities by definitions of activity coverage of the NKD 2007. (NN, No. 58/07. and 72/07.) for each indicator separately due to the differences in coverage according to legislation of EU.

Industrial turnover index covers only two sections of the NKD 2007. B Mining and quarrying and C Manufacturing, that is, their divisions 05 – 33.

Industrial new order index covers only those activities of NKD 2007. which are predominantly working on orders and thus include one section of the NKD 2007. – C Manufacturing, its divisions 13, 14, 17, 20, 21 and 24 – 30.

Reference period

The reference period for data collection is a calendar month. As a rule, completed IND-2/KPS/M forms must be returned by mail to the Central Bureau of Statistics as a rule 25 days after the end of the reference period.

Definitions and calculation method

Industrial turnover and new order index indices are chain indices calculated according to activities by value data of the turnover (sales)/new order received on the level of main activity of industrial local units defend by the CBS.

Indices are calculated by aggregation of turnover value data (sales), value of new orders received respectively in reporting month.

Definitions for industrial turnover index

The value of total turnover that is, income from sales is the invoiced value of reporting local units for the goods and services sold during the reference month. It corresponds to the market value of goods and services sold and delivered to third parties on domestic and non-domestic market in the reporting month. The value of income from sales (turnover) includes all transport and packing costs as well as taxes on invoiced goods and services of the reporting units except the value added tax (VAT). Excluded are all reductions in prices, rebates and discounts as well as the value of returned packed goods, except cash price reductions. Price reductions, rebates and bonuses granted to customers later (e.g., at the end of the year) are also excluded.

The value of turnover on domestic and non-domestic market

The income from sales (turnover) of goods and services to third parties residing in the same country, that is, to residents of the Republic of Croatia, is considered sale on domestic market, while sales on non-domestic market is considered as sales to non-residents of the Republic of Croatia according to the criterion of the first destination of products or services and change of owner (irrespective of whether the goods or services for which the invoice was issued actually crossed the border or not).

Definitions for industrial new order index

The total value of an new orders received is the value as provided in a contract/agreement between a industrial local units/producer and ordered/third party on domestic or non-domestic market that are considered new, that is, received in a reference month for a future production of industrial products and services (for own account or for third party/subcontracting).

The value of contracted/agreed new orders does not include the value added tax (VAT). In the case when a certain order has been produced during the reference month and there is the invoice issued for it, it is not recorded here but under the item Value of income from sales (turnover). New orders received and cancelled in the same reference month have not been excluded from the total new orders received data in compliance with STS legislations of EU.

The value of new orders on domestic and non-domestic market

The value of new orders received for production of goods and services from third parties residing in the same country, that is, to residents of the Republic of Croatia, is considered orders on domestic market, while new orders received on non-domestic market is considered as orders from non-residents of the Republic of Croatia. As for new orders received in the reference month, the criterion for determining the market refers to the residence of an orderer of industrial goods or services and not to the residence of a producer.

Calculation method

Indices of industrial turnover and new orders for the different levels of NKD 2007. are calculated for indices on group levels and higher by weighting with the share in value of sales (turnover) for defined industrial activities according to NKD 2007. in respect with each indicator.

Indices for MIGs 2009. aggregates ²⁾are calculated in the same way as well as indices for domestic and non-domestic market for both indicators according to the coverage of activities that differs for each indicator. They are presented in the continuation.

Industrial turnover index and GIG 2009. aggregates

The calculation of the MIGs 2009. aggregates was done by grouping of the NKD 2007. activities on the level of divisions or groups (05.1 – 33.2) within sections C and D, as follows:

AI Intermediate goods: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 07 – 09, 10.6, 10.9, 13.1 – 13.3, 16, 17, 20.1 – 20.3, 20.5, 20.6, 22 – 24, 25.5 – 25.7, 25.9, 26.1, 26.8, 27.1 – 27.4 and 27.9

AE Energy: the NKD 2007. divisions: 05, 06 and 19

BB Capital goods: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 25.1 – 25.4, 26.2, 26.3, 26.5, 26.6, 28, 29, 30.1 – 30.4, 32.5 and 33

CD Consumer durables: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 26.4, 26.7, 27.5, 30.9, 31, 32.1 and 32.2

CN Consumer non-durables: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 10.1 – 10.5, 10.7, 10.8, 11, 12, 13.9, 14, 15, 18, 20.4, 21, 32.3, 32.4 and 32.9

Industrial new orders index and GIG 2009. aggregates

The calculation of the MIGs 2009. aggregates was done by grouping of the NKD 2007. activities on the level of 12 selected divisions (13, 14, 17, 20, 21 and 24 – 30) and their groups within the section C – Manufacturing according to the NKD 2007. which have usually been made on orders, as follows:

AI Intermediate goods: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 13.1 – 13.3, 14, 17, 20.1 – 20.3, 20.5, 20.6, 24, 25.5 – 25.7, 25.9, 26.1, 26.8, 27.1 – 27.4 and 27.9

BB Capital goods: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 25.1 – 25.4, 26.2, 26.3, 26.5, 26.6, 28, 29 and 30.1 - 30.4

CD Consumer durables: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 26.4, 26.7, 27.5, 30.9

CN Consumer non-durables: the NKD 2007. divisions and groups: 13.9, 14, 20.4 i 21

Calculation of indices according to NKD 2007. activities

The structure of industrial activities (division structure) in 2008 has for both indicators – industrial turnover index and new orders – has been calculated for 2008 on the basis of the value of turnover (sales) by kind-of-activity (pure activity) principle in the Republic of Croatia in 2008. Domestic market index and non-domestic market index were calculated on the basis of annual statistical results of the Structural Business Survey on Industry (coverage of 96.1%) of the Central Bureau of Statistics and annual results taken over from administrative data obtained from Fina – the Annual Accounts of Industrial Enterprises in 2007 (coverage of 3.9%). The calculating structure from the same survey is used for the calculation of domestic market index and non-domestic market index. The division structure will be updated at the beginning of every year for the calculation of indices of a current year.

Special notes to users

In this first release, all indices are presented in the original (unadjusted) form. They were calculated on the basis of data collected through the Monthly Survey on Industrial Turnover and New Orders (IND-2/KPS/M form) in 2009. Due to the shortness of the series that started in January 2005 when the data collection began, seasonally and working-day adjusted indices and the trend are presently not available and their presentation is expected at the beginning of the next year.

Backcasted time series of monthly turnover chain indices and new orders chain indices originally collected according to NKD 2002. have been backcasted to NKD 2007. using micro method (double encoding of reporting units) at the level of sections and divisions as well as MIGs 2009. aggregates. Backcasted series of chain indices for the period from January 2005 to December 2008 are presented in tables 3 and 4.

Backcasted time series of industrial monthly turnover chain indices and new orders chain indices at the level of NKD 2007. divisions, as well as original monthly series for 2009 have been analysed and their issue is due at the beginning of the next year. All presently available backcasted time series of chain indices for industry total and at the level of GIG 2009. aggregates can be obtained in electronic form by sending users’ personal request to the Statistical Information and Documentation, Archive and Publications Division of the CBS.

1) EU regulations on short-term statistics No. 1165/98, 1158/2005, 1503/2006 and 1983/2006 for industrial turnover and received new orders as well as for the implementation of the structure of new EU statistical classifications NACE Rev.2 from which the NKD 2007. as the national version has been derived.

2) MIGs 2009. is an acronym for the Main Industrial Groupings, 2009 version, which has been harmonised with the EU aggregates (MIGs 2009.) according to the Commission Regulation (EC) No. 656/2007 of 14 June 2007 on Implementing Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics as regards to the definitions of Main Industrial Groupings (MIGs).

Abbreviations

CBS Central Bureau of Statistics

e.g. for example (from Latin: exempli gratia)

EU European Union

Fina Financial Agency

MIGs 2009. Main Industrial Groupings, 2009 version

n.e.c. not elsewhere classified

NKD 2002. National Classification of Activities, 2002 version

NKD 2007. National Classification of Activities, 2007 version

NN Narodne novine, official gazette of the Republic of Croatia

This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of Central Bureau of Statistics and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.